The stock market has been hovering near record highs despite an assortment of economic and geopolitical risks. In the spirit of Halloween, we discuss some of the tricks and treats that might spook the markets between now and year-end. Trade remains the biggest worry,...
The stock market has started October on a bumpy path. Many global issues remain unresolved, but seasonal forces, sound fundamentals, and breakthroughs on the trade and geopolitical1 fronts could help sustain the S&P 500 Index at record highs. Volatility can be...
Stocks Stall, Yields Fall Amid Economic Mixed Signals U.S. economy sends mixed signals. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2% in the second quarter. Consumer spending added 3 percentage points to overall growth, while trade and inventories were a 1.6 percentage point...
Corporate earnings growth has ground to a halt, but we think better times lie ahead. While tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty could delay improvement, we remain optimistic that some progress on trade will be forthcoming and earnings growth could pick up over the...
ECONOMY: ECONOMIC DATA IMPROVES IN SEPTEMBER Economic data improved modestly in September as the U.S. economy stayed resilient against trade uncertainty. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) was unchanged month over month in August after a strong July...
Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies and contributed to investor concerns about increased policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry. OUR...
