2019 was a baffling year for bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a three-year low, and the yield curve flashed ominous signals about the economic outlook. We’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields since the September low, but we don’t expect much more...
U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. As we highlighted in our Outlook 2020: Bringing Markets Into Focus, we’re projecting real GDP growth of 1.75% in 2020, slightly below...
Market momentum, global participation, and technical support all provide reasons to think gains may not be over for 2019. While volatility is always possible, record highs need not be be feared, and seasonal tendencies may remain a tailwind. MORE ROOM TO RUN The...
While earnings declined year over year in the third quarter, results still exceeded expectations. Tariffs, ongoing policy uncertainty, and slower global growth have led to this earnings lull, but we remain optimistic that earnings growth bottomed last quarter and is...
Why would we write a report about recession with the S&P 500 at record highs? Consider it a check-up. Just because you feel good doesn’t mean you skip your annual physical at the doctor. We check in on some of our favorite leading indicators to see if any cracks...
Consumer spending has powered the U.S. economy this year as businesses curb investments, waiting for trade and geopolitical uncertainty to fade. We expect that growth will likely slow next year as companies continue to sit out this part of the cycle; however, we...
